Early Warning Systems That Support Students at Risk of Dropping Out of High School

Author: Center for Comprehensive School Reform and Improvement
Publisher: Learning Point Associates
Publication Date: 2008, December
Full text available online at: http://www.centerforcsri.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=617&Itemid=7

Abstract (written by WestEd)

This research brief summarizes E. M. Allensworth and J. Q. Easton's 2007 study of how indicators of ninth grade performance can predict Chicago students' graduation from high school. The study found the following:

1. Attendance is the largest predictor of course failure.
2. Boys fail more often than girls.
3. Academic preparation (as measured by eighth grade tests) affects success.
4. Students attend class more often and are more successful when they:
   1. Have strong relationships with teacher
   2. Perceive school and their coursework as important to their futures.
   3. Have support for academic achievement from their peers.
5. Students are more successful in schools where teachers collaborate.

Specific recommendations for supporting students towards graduation include the following:

1. Grades and course failure rates should be used to target students.
2. Intervention should be integrated and closely aligned with the instructional program of the school.
3. It is crucial to address attendance as a means to reduce course failures.
4. Programs that support the transition to high school should closely monitor grades and attendance and intervene when students show signs of struggling.
5. Students and parents need to know the impact of attendance on grades.
6. Educators should make efforts to improve teacher-student relationships and help students understand the connection of their coursework to future goals.

To access the authors' 2007 study, along with the abstract, video presentation, and parent, student, and teacher briefs, go to What Matters for Staying On-Track and Graduating in Chicago Public High Schools: A Close Look at Course Grades, Failures, and Attendance in the Freshman Year.

An abstract and the full-text version of the authors' 2005 study, which posits an indicator for predicting which ninth-grade students will drop out of high school, is available at The On-Track Indicator as a Predictor of High School Graduation.